Mexico Open

Vallarta, MEX

The first Mexico Open in some time will be contested on a 2015 Greg Norman design this week. I was a member at a Greg Norman-designed golf course for a few years and descriptions of this track sound very similar to my former home course. Forgiving off the tee, with water on 12 holes and plenty of deep bunkers and waste areas.

The field is filled with journeymen and some formerly high-ranked players looking to get their games back on track….and Jon Rahm. So far this season, Rahm is also having a bit of an off-year but whenever he is any field, he remains one of the players to beat. It will be no different this week.

Who should win? – Jon Rahm 4.50/1

He is the class of the field by a long shot. He leads the TOUR in greens hit in regulation but his putter hasn’t been nearly as hot as it was in 2021. His B game should win this week.

Who could win? – Tony Finau 20/1, Gary Woodland 20/1, Sebastian Munoz 30/1, Cameron Tringale 33/1

Finau has been in a funk this year and as usual, putting is the culprit. The same can be said about Munoz but he has been putting up consistent 20-25 place finishes lately and he should be inspired by a home crowd. If tournaments were only 54 holes, Tringale would be a much richer man. He tends to fade on weekends. He is still looking for his first TOUR win and this could be his week – he is a solid bet for a top-10 finish at the very least. Woodland has been showing some signs of his old self lately. He missed the cut at both the Players and the Masters, but he posted a T5 at the Palmer and a T8 in Texas. He is 30th in SG total so far this season, so expect to see Woodland more of a factor as the season progresses.

Who will win? – Gary Woodland

For all the reasons stated above, I like Woodland to break through this weekend. If Rahm is motivated and his putter behaves, it could be those two battling on Sunday.

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