McKinney, TX

This is the second Nelson being played at Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Craig Ranch. This year’s edition has more top-level talent than in ’21 when K.H. Lee prevailed. Lee’s game has since faltered where he is a 125/1 underdog – unusual for a defending champ. Wet conditions in ’21 resulted in lower than expected scores with Lee posting a -25. This course will still likely produce a winning score in the mid to high teens.

Who should win? – Scottie Scheffler 10/1

Scheffler is currently the best player in the world, he is a native Texan and he played this course last year. While some of the field will be using this tournament as a tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship, Scheffler is so on-form, that he could win even if he is looking forward a week.

Who could win? – Sam Burns 18/1, Justin Thomas 11/1, Jordan Spieth 22/1, Talor Gooch 40/1

Burns was runner-up to Lee and he continues to play great golf following last year’s breakthrough season. He is almost a lock to finish top-5. Thomas did not play Craig Ranch the previous year but he seems to be on a run of good form every other tournament lately. This should be his “on” week. Spieth had a top-ten here in ’21, obviously knows how to play in Texas, and looks to be getting closer to looking like his old self. Gooch finished T39 last year and has been posting solid results this season.

Who will win? – Will Zalatoris 22/1

The easy bets would be Burns or Spieth, but this could be Z’s first TOUR win. He had a top-20 last year, and his last three outings have produced a T5, T6, and T4. His putter needs to co-operate a little, but with his talent, he will win soon, so why not here?