BMW Championship

The penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event is scheduled this week at Caves Valley Golf Club just outside Baltimore MD. The tournament plays host to the 70 players remaining in the hunt after last week’s event at Liberty National. Tony Finau finally came through with his second Tour win after 40 some odd top-10 finishes following his 2016 maiden win in Puerto Rico.

Caves Valley has been the site of many top Senior, LPGA, and amateur events over the past several years, but most of the field will be seeing it for the first time this week. It’s a Tom Fazio design that opened for play in 1991. It has recently been lengthened to over 7500 yards and has been running firm and fast until a recent rainy period. There are a lot of risk-reward holes that will favor the bombers and bentgrass greens could benefit players who have had success on those truer surfaces.

Who should win? – Jon Rahm 6.5/1

No surprise here as Rahm has been the best player on the planet for the last couple of months. If he has a decent week on the greens, this tournament should be his.

Who could win? – Justin Thomas 20/1, Bryson DeChambeau 20/1, Dustin Johnson 22/1, Rory McIlroy 25/1

JT is starting to look like his old self and if he can keep up his confidence on the greens, could easily come out on top this week. Bryson has the length to over-power this course and if his iron play continues to be strong along with a good week on his favored green surface, watch out. Both Johnson’s and Rory’s games are well-suited for this course. It’s just a matter of time before one of these players comes out of hibernation.

Best longshot bet to win? – Shane Lowry 45/1

Lowry putting stats are what have been holding him back but he likes bentgrass greens and he has quietly done very well in some of the season’s bigger events and most difficult golf courses. The former Open champ is due for his next win.

Best Top-5 bet? – Corey Conners 7/1

Conners seems to always be around the lead in big tournaments. Solid ball striker who keeps the ball in play needs just a solid putting week to contend.

Who will win? – Patrick Cantlay 25/1

Cantlay has a great all-around game that does not always translate to success in the bigger events. That could change with a win this week. He is plenty long enough to handle this course and has an exceptional short game. After a good but not great season, this could easily be his week.

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